This is part 2 of this article: Test results are positive. What are the odds you have the virus? Surprise, intuition is wrong!
Bayes’s Theorem from statistics applied to pandemicsflorin-andrei.medium.com To recap: there’s a pandemic going on, 1% of people have the virus. There’s a test that can detect the virus, and the test is 99% reliable (for both positive and negative results). But this time, when you take the test, the result…